Kalshi's Austin market settles on the daily high at Austin-Bergstrom (KAUS), not Camp Mabry, as the climate report CLIAUS and The Weather Company publish it. Series KXHIGHAUS, listed since May 11, 2023.
Updated Oct 30, 5:21 AM CDT: newest final official high is for Thu, Oct 29.
Austin-Bergstrom International Airport
Not Camp Mabry.
1:00 AM Oct 31 to 1:00 AM Nov 1 CDT
Midnight to midnight CST, local standard time: 1:00 AM to 1:00 AM on Austin's clock while daylight saving is on.
Today's six brackets, in whole degrees
Since Aug 14, 2026, 7 of 77 days (9%) settled on a tail bracket: 5 below the bottom bracket and 2 above the top one. In the last 30 days: 7 of 30.
| Day | Settled on | Winning bracket | Time of high (LST) | Settled at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, Oct 29 | 74° | 76° or belowbottom tail | 3:48 PM | Oct 30, 7:08 AM CDT |
| Wed, Oct 28 | 81° | 81° or belowbottom tail | 1:41 PM | Oct 29, 7:18 AM CDT |
| Tue, Oct 27 | 83° | 82° to 83° | 3:20 PM | Oct 28, 7:08 AM CDT |
| Mon, Oct 26 | 80° | 80° or belowbottom tail | 1:49 PM | Oct 27, 7:09 AM CDT |
| Sun, Oct 25 | 82° | 81° to 82° | — | Oct 26, 7:08 AM CDT |
| Sat, Oct 24 | 88° | 87° to 88° | 3:55 PM | Oct 25, 7:08 AM CDT |
| Fri, Oct 23 | 87° | 86° to 87° | 3:10 PM | Oct 24, 7:08 AM CDT |
| Thu, Oct 22 | 87° | 86° to 87° | 3:10 PM | Oct 23, 7:08 AM CDT |
| Wed, Oct 21 | 85° | 85° to 86° | 3:54 PM | Oct 22, 7:17 AM CDT |
| Tue, Oct 20 | 84° | 83° to 84° | 3:55 PM | Oct 21, 7:08 AM CDT |
| Mon, Oct 19 | 80° | 80° to 81° | 4:25 PM | Oct 20, 7:09 AM CDT |
| Sun, Oct 18 | 75° | 75° to 76° | 4:30 PM | Oct 19, 7:13 AM CDT |
| Sat, Oct 17 | 70° | 70° to 71° | 3:42 PM | Oct 18, 7:08 AM CDT |
| Fri, Oct 16 | 75° | 75° to 76° | 1:17 AM | Oct 17, 7:17 AM CDT |
| Thu, Oct 15 | 92° | 91° to 92° | 3:25 PM | Oct 16, 7:08 AM CDT |
| Wed, Oct 14 | 95° | 95° to 96° | 2:11 PM | Oct 15, 7:08 AM CDT |
| Tue, Oct 13 | 96° | 95° to 96° | 2:48 PM | Oct 14, 7:08 AM CDT |
| Mon, Oct 12 | 92° | 92° to 93° | 2:30 PM | Oct 13, 7:08 AM CDT |
| Sun, Oct 11 | 94° | 94° to 95° | 2:08 PM | Oct 12, 7:08 AM CDT |
| Sat, Oct 10 | 93° | 93° to 94° | 3:40 PM | Oct 11, 7:08 AM CDT |
| Fri, Oct 9 | 92° | 92° to 93° | 3:35 PM | Oct 10, 7:17 AM CDT |
| Thu, Oct 8 | 92° | 92° to 93° | 3:01 PM | Oct 9, 7:08 AM CDT |
| Wed, Oct 7 | 92° | 91° to 92° | 1:52 PM | Oct 8, 7:18 AM CDT |
| Tue, Oct 6 | 90° | 90° or abovetop tail | 4:37 PM | Oct 7, 7:09 AM CDT |
| Mon, Oct 5 | 89° | 89° or abovetop tail | 3:57 PM | Oct 6, 7:09 AM CDT |
| Sun, Oct 4 | 77° | 79° or belowbottom tail | 6:04 PM | Oct 5, 7:09 AM CDT |
| Sat, Oct 3 | 78° | 78° or belowbottom tail | 2:18 PM | Oct 4, 7:09 AM CDT |
| Fri, Oct 2 | 79° | 78° to 79° | 3:32 PM | Oct 3, 7:09 AM CDT |
| Thu, Oct 1 | 87° | 87° to 88° | 11:08 AM | Oct 2, 7:18 AM CDT |
| Wed, Sep 30 | 98° | 97° to 98° | 2:28 PM | Oct 1, 7:09 AM CDT |
Source: Each market's result, settlement value and time: Kalshi's public market data; Time of the high: NWS climate reports for KAUS, via IEM
Over 362 days (Oct 30, 2025 to Oct 29, 2026), the median time of the official high was 3:51 PM local standard time, and half the highs came between 3:11 PM and 4:27 PM. Over the last 59 days the median was 3:25 PM.
Austin-Bergstrom's high came before 1 AM standard time (1 to 2 AM daylight time) on 5 of 362 days (1%): the climate day's warmest minutes were its first.
KAUS report times, standard time. 3 without a time (MM) left out.
Source: NWS climate reports for KAUS, via IEM; IEM table of NWS climate reports
Kalshi's Austin market settles on Austin-Bergstrom (KAUS) and nothing else. Camp Mabry (KATT) publishes its own climate report, with its own daily high, which doesn't count.
Camp Mabry (KATT) against Austin-Bergstrom, 17 km apart
Over 365 days (Oct 21, 2025 to Oct 20, 2026), the two official highs were the same whole degree on 137 of 365 days (38%). Camp Mabry was warmer on 107 and cooler on 121, −0.1°F on average, and 2°F or more apart (a bracket's width) on 62.
Widest gaps: Dec 3, 2025, KATT 59° and KAUS 56°; Oct 1, 2026, KATT 82° and KAUS 87°.
Source: NWS climate reports for KATT (CLIATT), via IEM; NWS climate reports for KAUS, via IEM
Polymarket's Austin market settles on the same station, Austin-Bergstrom International Airport (KAUS), but reads it its own way: the highest of the day's hourly readings in whole °F, over the local calendar day, in 2°F ranges.
Kalshi vs Polymarket in Austin: the stations and the last 30 days side by side
On 182 days from May 1, 2026 to Oct 30, 2026, the NWS's afternoon preliminary report (usually "as of 5 PM" local time) had the same high as the final report on 170 of 182 days (93%). The final report came in higher on 12 and never lower.
10 of those 12 higher finals put the high after the 5 PM cutoff.
Source: Every NWS climate report issued for KAUS (CLIAUS), via IEM's text archive
The normal high for Oct 31 is 77°F and the record high is 90°F. The normal falls to 67°F by Nov 30.
365 final highs at KAUS, Oct 30, 2025 to Oct 29, 2026, against the normal and record each report printed.
Source: NWS climate reports for KAUS, via IEM; NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals
Austin-Bergstrom International Airport (KAUS), the station named by the climate-report code CLIAUS in the market's rules. Not Camp Mabry.
Midnight to midnight CST, local standard time. During daylight saving that is 1:00 AM Oct 31 to 1:00 AM Nov 1 CDT.
Trading closes at 1:00 AM CDT after the day ends. Over the last 77 settled days the result posted a median of 6.2 hours after close.
76° or below, 77° to 78°, 79° to 80°, 81° to 82°, 83° to 84°, 85° or above, compared with Austin-Bergstrom's published whole-degree high. The two tails are strict.
On 7 of 77 settled days from Aug 14, 2026 to Oct 29, 2026 (9%): 5 on the bottom tail and 2 on the top tail.
Over 362 days to Oct 29, 2026, the median time of the official high at KAUS was 3:51 PM local standard time. On 5 of those days it came before 1 AM standard time.
From May 1, 2026 to Oct 30, 2026, the afternoon preliminary report's high matched the final report's on 170 of 182 days. The final was higher on 12 and lower on 0.
No. Only Austin-Bergstrom (KAUS) does. Over 365 days to Oct 20, 2026, KATT's official high was the same whole degree as KAUS's on 137 days and 2°F or more apart on 62.
The rules every city shares · Reading CLIAUS · The Aug 14, 2026 change
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