Both markets settle on Austin-Bergstrom (KAUS), but they count the high differently.
Austin-Bergstrom (KAUS)
The day's official high, 1 AM to 1 AM while clocks are on daylight time.
Austin-Bergstrom International Airport (KAUS)
The highest hourly reading on NOAA's page for the station, in whole degrees, on the local calendar day.
Highest hourly reading so far at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport (KAUS): 66°F at 12:53 AM. The line is each hourly report, the reports Polymarket's rules count; the stripes are its ranges.
Austin so far today: the high is 66°F (12:53 AM), in the 71° or below bracket. The favorite is 78° to 79° at 39¢ (Polymarket, 30 minutes late), 12° above the high so far. The day ends at 12:00 AM CDT. 6 reports from KAUS from 12:00 AM to 6:17 AM CDT, between 66°F and 66°F; the latest 66°F at 5:53 AM.
| Bracket | Price | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 90° or above | <1¢ | |
| 88° to 89° | <1¢ | |
| 86° to 87° | <1¢ | |
| 84° to 85° | 1¢ | |
| 82° to 83° | 9¢ | |
| 80° to 81° | 37¢ | |
| 78° to 79° | 39¢ | favorite |
| 76° to 77° | 11¢ | |
| 74° to 75° | 4¢ | |
| 72° to 73° | 1¢ | |
| 71° or below | <1¢ | high so far |
| Time | Reading |
|---|---|
| 5:53 AM | 66°F |
| 4:53 AM | 66°F |
| 3:53 AM | 66°F |
| 2:53 AM | 66°F |
| 1:53 AM | 66°F |
| 12:53 AM | 66°F |
| Range | Price (30 min late) | Traded |
|---|---|---|
| 90° or above | <1¢ | 240 |
| 88°–89° | <1¢ | 345 |
| 86°–87° | <1¢ | 270 |
| 84°–85° | 1¢ | 277 |
| 82°–83° | 9¢ | 1,140 |
| 80°–81° | 37¢ | 3,431 |
| 78°–79° | 39¢ | 3,022 |
| 76°–77° | 11¢ | 4,586 |
| 74°–75° | 4¢ | 2,176 |
| 72°–73° | 1¢ | 1,458 |
| 71° or belowhigh so far | <1¢ | 1,305 |
Almanac's °F is each report's tenths of a degree Celsius, rounded. Polymarket settles on NOAA's page for the station, which lists the same reports. Today's market on Polymarket.
Which range will Austin settle on today? For fun: no money, no orders, nothing sent to Polymarket. It counts on the weekly leaderboard: a right call scores 100 minus its price when you called it.
Create a free account to make your call.
Polymarket's winning range held the high Kalshi settled on for 17 of 30 days; it cooler on 13.
Source: Kalshi's settlements: Kalshi's public market data; Polymarket's results: each daily event
| Rule | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| What counts as the high | The day's official high for the station, as The Weather Company publishes it for Kalshi (weather.com/kalshi) for events from Aug 14, 2026. It has matched the NWS climate report's official high on 1,587 of 1,588 settled days, and that high counts a peak between hourly reports. | The highest reading in the "Temp" column of NOAA's time-series page for the station, using its hourly data, in whole degrees. A peak between two readings isn't in that column, so it can come out lower than the official high. |
| The day | Midnight to midnight local standard time, so 1 AM to 1 AM while clocks are on daylight time. | Every time listed on that day on NOAA's page, which shows the station's local clock time. |
| The ranges | Two-degree brackets, with an open bracket at each end. Where the brackets start moves from day to day (61°–62° one day, 62°–63° another). | Two-degree ranges that start on an even number (62°–63°), with an open range at each end. |
| When it settles | After the final report for the day is out, usually the next morning. | Once the first reading of the next day is on NOAA's page, or by 11:59 PM Eastern the next day. If NOAA has no data by then, the Weather Underground daily observations table is used. |
Source: Polymarket's market rules (read Thu, Oct 22); Kalshi contract terms; The Weather Company's Kalshi data
All 11 cities, Kalshi vs Polymarket
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