Kalshi's weather markets now settle on The Weather Company

Changed

The settlement source: The Weather Company, not the NWS report

From the August 14, 2026 events on, every one of the 24 daily high series resolves "according to The Weather Company". The events up to August 13 named the National Weather Service's Daily Climate Report.

The contract terms now list the sources in order: The Weather Company first, then the National Weather Service.

New York City, Oct 20, 2026 (now)

“If the maximum temperature recorded at New York City (CLINYC) for Oct 20, 2026, is between 65-66° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.”

New York City, Aug 13, 2026 (before)

“If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York for August 13, 2026 as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), is greater than 92°, then the market resolves to Yes.”

Source: Kalshi contract terms (GLOBALTEMPERATURE); Each market's rules, read from Kalshi's public market data on Oct 19, 2026

Unchanged

The number itself: almost always the same

Across every settled day from August 14 to October 18, 2026, Kalshi's settlement value matched The Weather Company's in 1,541 of 1,541 checks and the NWS climate report's in 1,539 of 1,540.

The one difference was Miami on August 29, 2026: Kalshi and The Weather Company both said 90°F, while the NWS report as archived by the Iowa Environmental Mesonet said 85°F. The NWS sent two final reports that morning, 90°F at 4:24 AM and 85°F at 5:10 AM; Kalshi's terms use the first, and the archive keeps the second.

Source: The Weather Company, weather.com/kalshi; Almanac's cross-check of 1,541 settled days against both sources; Miami's first final report (4:24 AM); and its second (5:10 AM)

Unchanged

The station: still named by the NWS report code

The rules still name each city by its NWS climate report code (CLINYC, CLIMDW, ...), and that code still names one station: Chicago is Midway, not O'Hare; Houston is Hobby, not Bush Intercontinental; Austin is Austin-Bergstrom, not Camp Mabry.

Source: Kalshi contract terms (GLOBALTEMPERATURE)

Unchanged

The day: midnight to midnight local standard time

The high is still taken over the climate day, midnight to midnight local standard time, which runs 1 AM to 1 AM on the clock during daylight saving. Since August 14 Kalshi's trading close matches it in every city: midnight standard time after the day, not the 11:59 PM the market's close-condition text says.

Source: NWS observation FAQ; Close times of all 1,589 events since Aug 14, 2026

Changed

Since the Sep 3, 2026 events: a wrong number can hold the result

From the September 3, 2026 events on, every one of the 24 series' rules adds a paragraph on wrong data: if Kalshi judges the first non-preliminary value materially wrong, it can hold expiration until a corrected value is published, up to the expiration date a week after the event, and if none comes, every bracket resolves to the last fair price. The events up to September 2 don't carry it.

Every daily-high market's rules, from the Sep 3, 2026 events

“If it is determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange that there is a material error in the initial non-preliminary publication, Expiration may be held until the publication of a non-materially-erroneous data revision or until the Expiration Date, whichever comes first. If no data is available at the end of this period, all markets will resolve to the last fair price determined by Kalshi.”

Source: KXHIGHNY-26SEP02's rules (without it), Kalshi's public API; KXHIGHNY-26SEP03's rules (with it)

Unchanged

Preliminary isn't final

Only the first official, non-preliminary report counts, and revisions after the expiration date don't. On weather.com/kalshi a station-day is marked preliminary, final, revised or no report; Kalshi notes that "Final" there is for convenience and doesn't promise an error-free value.

Contract terms

“Only the first official non-preliminary report published by the Source Agencies that includes the relevant data will be used for resolution. Revisions after the Expiration Date are not included in the Payout Criterion.”

Source: Kalshi contract terms (GLOBALTEMPERATURE); The Weather Company, weather.com/kalshi