Kalshi's San Francisco market settles on the daily high at SFO (KSFO), not downtown San Francisco, as the climate report CLISFO and The Weather Company publish it. Series KXHIGHTSFO, listed since Jan 14, 2026.
Updated Oct 30, 5:21 AM PDT: newest final official high is for Thu, Oct 29.
San Francisco International Airport
Not downtown San Francisco.
1:00 AM Oct 31 to 1:00 AM Nov 1 PDT
Midnight to midnight PST, local standard time: 1:00 AM to 1:00 AM on San Francisco's clock while daylight saving is on.
Today's six brackets, in whole degrees
Since Aug 14, 2026, 16 of 77 days (21%) settled on a tail bracket: 11 below the bottom bracket and 5 above the top one. In the last 30 days: 6 of 30.
| Day | Settled on | Winning bracket | Time of high (LST) | Settled at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, Oct 29 | 66° | 65° to 66° | 4:31 PM | Oct 30, 7:10 AM PDT |
| Wed, Oct 28 | 69° | 69° to 70° | 2:40 PM | Oct 29, 7:10 AM PDT |
| Tue, Oct 27 | 66° | 66° to 67° | 1:41 PM | Oct 28, 7:09 AM PDT |
| Mon, Oct 26 | 68° | 68° to 69° | 1:57 PM | Oct 27, 7:10 AM PDT |
| Sun, Oct 25 | 74° | 73° to 74° | 2:18 PM | Oct 26, 7:11 AM PDT |
| Sat, Oct 24 | 74° | 74° to 75° | 1:59 PM | Oct 25, 7:10 AM PDT |
| Fri, Oct 23 | 69° | 69° to 70° | 2:52 PM | Oct 24, 7:10 AM PDT |
| Thu, Oct 22 | 63° | 63° to 64° | 3:18 PM | Oct 23, 7:10 AM PDT |
| Wed, Oct 21 | 65° | 65° to 66° | 6:55 PM | Oct 22, 7:10 AM PDT |
| Tue, Oct 20 | 68° | 68° to 69° | 3:37 PM | Oct 21, 7:10 AM PDT |
| Mon, Oct 19 | 65° | 65° to 66° | 1:32 PM | Oct 20, 7:11 AM PDT |
| Sun, Oct 18 | 65° | 65° to 66° | 1:19 PM | Oct 19, 7:09 AM PDT |
| Sat, Oct 17 | 83° | 82° to 83° | 2:11 PM | Oct 18, 7:10 AM PDT |
| Fri, Oct 16 | 85° | 84° to 85° | 1:50 PM | Oct 17, 7:09 AM PDT |
| Thu, Oct 15 | 84° | 84° to 85° | 3:27 PM | Oct 16, 7:10 AM PDT |
| Wed, Oct 14 | 76° | 75° to 76° | 2:16 PM | Oct 15, 7:10 AM PDT |
| Tue, Oct 13 | 74° | 74° to 75° | 1:58 PM | Oct 14, 7:10 AM PDT |
| Mon, Oct 12 | 69° | 68° to 69° | 1:53 PM | Oct 13, 7:10 AM PDT |
| Sun, Oct 11 | 65° | 65° to 66° | 1:03 PM | Oct 12, 7:08 AM PDT |
| Sat, Oct 10 | 65° | 65° to 66° | 1:56 PM | Oct 11, 7:10 AM PDT |
| Fri, Oct 9 | 71° | 70° to 71° | 12:52 PM | Oct 10, 7:10 AM PDT |
| Thu, Oct 8 | 75° | 76° or belowbottom tail | 12:23 PM | Oct 9, 7:10 AM PDT |
| Wed, Oct 7 | 76° | 76° or belowbottom tail | 1:33 PM | Oct 8, 7:10 AM PDT |
| Tue, Oct 6 | 80° | 80° or belowbottom tail | 3:15 PM | Oct 7, 7:11 AM PDT |
| Mon, Oct 5 | 76° | 81° or belowbottom tail | 12:22 PM | Oct 6, 7:12 AM PDT |
| Sun, Oct 4 | 83° | 83° to 84° | 4:08 PM | Oct 5, 7:12 AM PDT |
| Sat, Oct 3 | 90° | 89° to 90° | 3:29 PM | Oct 4, 7:12 AM PDT |
| Fri, Oct 2 | 76° | 76° or belowbottom tail | 3:42 PM | Oct 3, 7:12 AM PDT |
| Thu, Oct 1 | 73° | 74° or belowbottom tail | 1:25 PM | Oct 2, 7:12 AM PDT |
| Wed, Sep 30 | 78° | 78° to 79° | 2:08 PM | Oct 1, 7:12 AM PDT |
Source: Each market's result, settlement value and time: Kalshi's public market data; Time of the high: NWS climate reports for KSFO, via IEM
Over 362 days (Oct 30, 2025 to Oct 29, 2026), the median time of the official high was 2:25 PM local standard time, and half the highs came between 1:26 PM and 3:28 PM. Over the last 60 days the median was 1:58 PM.
SFO's high came before 1 AM standard time (1 to 2 AM daylight time) on 1 of 362 days (0%): the climate day's warmest minutes were its first.
KSFO report times, standard time. 3 without a time (MM) left out.
Source: NWS climate reports for KSFO, via IEM; IEM table of NWS climate reports
Kalshi's San Francisco market settles on SFO (KSFO) and nothing else. Downtown San Francisco (KSFD) publishes its own climate report, with its own daily high, which doesn't count.
Downtown San Francisco (KSFD) against SFO, 9 km apart
Over 365 days (Oct 21, 2025 to Oct 20, 2026), the two official highs were the same whole degree on 46 of 365 days (13%). Downtown San Francisco was warmer on 63 and cooler on 256, −2.0°F on average, and 2°F or more apart (a bracket's width) on 241.
Widest gaps: Jan 13, 2026, KSFD 65° and KSFO 59°; Jun 14, 2026, KSFD 66° and KSFO 76°.
Source: NWS climate reports for KSFD (CLISFD), via IEM; NWS climate reports for KSFO, via IEM
Polymarket's San Francisco market settles on the same station, San Francisco International Airport (KSFO), but reads it its own way: the highest of the day's hourly readings in whole °F, over the local calendar day, in 2°F ranges.
Kalshi vs Polymarket in San Francisco: the stations and the last 30 days side by side
On 181 days from May 1, 2026 to Oct 29, 2026, the NWS's afternoon preliminary report (usually "as of 5 PM" local time) had the same high as the final report on 178 of 181 days (98%). The final report came in higher on 3 and never lower.
Every one of those 3 higher finals put the high after the 5 PM cutoff.
Source: Every NWS climate report issued for KSFO (CLISFO), via IEM's text archive
The normal high for Oct 31 is 69°F and the record high is 83°F. The normal falls to 60°F by Nov 30.
365 final highs at KSFO, Oct 30, 2025 to Oct 29, 2026, against the normal and record each report printed.
Source: NWS climate reports for KSFO, via IEM; NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals
Climate-report stations near SFO, and how their official highs ran against it. None settles the San Francisco market.
Other reporting stations within 25 km (METARs only, no climate report): San Carlos Arpt (KSQL, 16 km), Half Moon Bay Arpt (KHAF, 17 km), Alameda/Alameda NAS (KNGZ, 18 km).
Straight-line distances from KSFO; snapshot Oct 21, 2026.
Source: IEM's list of NWS climate-report sites; aviationweather.gov station information
San Francisco International Airport (KSFO), the station named by the climate-report code CLISFO in the market's rules. Not downtown San Francisco.
Midnight to midnight PST, local standard time. During daylight saving that is 1:00 AM Oct 31 to 1:00 AM Nov 1 PDT.
Trading closes at 1:00 AM PDT after the day ends. Over the last 77 settled days the result posted a median of 6.2 hours after close.
59° or below, 60° to 61°, 62° to 63°, 64° to 65°, 66° to 67°, 68° or above, compared with SFO's published whole-degree high. The two tails are strict.
On 16 of 77 settled days from Aug 14, 2026 to Oct 29, 2026 (21%): 11 on the bottom tail and 5 on the top tail.
Over 362 days to Oct 29, 2026, the median time of the official high at KSFO was 2:25 PM local standard time. On 1 of those days it came before 1 AM standard time.
From May 1, 2026 to Oct 29, 2026, the afternoon preliminary report's high matched the final report's on 178 of 181 days. The final was higher on 3 and lower on 0.
No. Only SFO (KSFO) does. Over 365 days to Oct 20, 2026, KSFD's official high was the same whole degree as KSFO's on 46 days and 2°F or more apart on 241.
The rules every city shares · Reading CLISFO · The Aug 14, 2026 change
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