Kalshi goes by the thermometer at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO), not downtown San Francisco. Today's high counts from 1:00 AM Oct 31 to 1:00 AM Nov 1 PDT.
Newest official high: Thu, Oct 29, posted Oct 30, 5:21 AM PDT.
San Francisco so far today: the high is 54°F (hourly reading, 1:56 AM), in the 59° or below bracket. The favorite is 64° to 65° at 46¢ (Kalshi, 30 minutes late), 10° above the high so far. Trading closes at 1:00 AM PDT. 3 reports from KSFO from 1:00 AM to 4:15 AM PDT, between 53°F and 54°F; the latest 53°F at 3:56 AM.
| Bracket | Price | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 68° or above | 4¢ | |
| 66° to 67° | 45¢ | |
| 64° to 65° | 46¢ | favorite |
| 62° to 63° | 7¢ | |
| 60° to 61° | 2¢ | |
| 59° or below | 1¢ | high so far |
| Time | Reading |
|---|---|
| 3:56 AM | 53°F |
| 2:56 AM | 54°F |
| 1:56 AM | 54°F |
Which bracket will San Francisco settle on today? For fun: no money, no orders, nothing sent to Kalshi. The market's own favorite usually wins, and your record sits beside it. See this week's leaderboard
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Prices (30 min late) 33 min ago· Readings 19 min ago
High so far today
54°F
hourly reading at 1:56 AM, 3 reports so far
Latest reading
53°F
taken 3:56 AM, counts toward today
Trading closes in
20 h 45 min
usually settles around 6:12 AM (median of 60 days)
| Bracket | Price | Bid | Last | Waiting to trade (bid × ask) | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 68° or above | 4¢ | 3¢ | 4¢ | 188 × 549 | 702 |
| 66° to 67° | 46¢ | 44¢ | 44¢ | 68 × 69 | 1,915 |
| 64° to 65°favorite | 46¢ | 45¢ | 46¢ | 20 × 124 | 811 |
| 62° to 63° | 7¢ | 6¢ | 8¢ | 56 × 10 | 681 |
| 60° to 61° | 2¢ | 1¢ | 1¢ | 32 × 478 | 26 |
| 59° or belowhigh so far 54° | 1¢ | — | 1¢ | — × 559 | 25 |
53°F
Favorite 51° to 52° at 63¢ · 1° to go, down
Low so far set at 3:56 AM. Same station and day as the high; closes in 20 h 45 min.
From KSFO's NWS climate reports (via the Iowa Environmental Mesonet) and Kalshi's settlements and stored prices. Facts about past days, not forecasts.
Highest hourly reading so far at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO): 56°F at 12:56 AM.
Polymarket's highest-priced range is 64°–65° at 64¢.
Same station as Kalshi, but Polymarket settles on the highest hourly reading, midnight to midnight local time.
Live prices in all 24 cities (these are 30 minutes late), 12 weather models' forecasts for this station (KSFO) on the chart and in a table, whether today is running hotter or cooler than they expected, and how each model has done here.
Model record: in our test the market's prices were more accurate than the model (log loss 1.26 vs 1.48 a day ahead, 0.92 vs 1.25 on the day; lower is better).
Every report from the station today (a ), in exact whole °F. “6 h max” is the station's own highest reading over the past 6 hours, which can catch a peak between hourly reports.
| Time | Reading | 6 h max | 24 h max | Report |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3:56 AM | 53° | METAR KSFO 311056Z 21003KT 10SM FEW018 FEW200 12/09 A2990 RMK AO2 SLP123 T01170089 $ | ||
| 2:56 AM | 54° | METAR KSFO 310956Z 21005KT 10SM SCT200 12/09 A2990 RMK AO2 SLP125 T01220094 $ | ||
| 1:56 AM | 54° | METAR KSFO 310856Z 20005KT 10SM FEW200 12/09 A2990 RMK AO2 SLP125 T01220094 52002 $ |
The official high isn't in yet. The final report goes out shortly after midnight standard time.
Not settled yet: Kalshi usually settles around 7 AM local the next morning.
Download every official high at KSFO (CSV): the NWS climate report's daily high since Jan 1, 2025, with its time, the normal and the record. Free, no account.
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