Kalshi settles on Midway (KMDW). Polymarket settles on Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport (KORD), a different station.
Midway (KMDW)
The day's official high, 1 AM to 1 AM while clocks are on daylight time.
Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport (KORD)
The highest hourly reading on NOAA's page for the station, in whole degrees, on the local calendar day.
Highest hourly reading so far at Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport (KORD): 55°F at 12:51 AM. The line is each hourly report, the reports Polymarket's rules count; the stripes are its ranges.
Chicago so far today: the high is 55°F (12:51 AM), in the 54° to 55° bracket. The favorite is 60° to 61° at 45¢ (Polymarket, 30 minutes late), 5° above the high so far. The day ends at 12:00 AM CDT. 5 reports from KORD from 12:00 AM to 5:29 AM CDT, between 52°F and 55°F; the latest 54°F at 4:51 AM.
| Bracket | Price | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 70° or above | <1¢ | |
| 68° to 69° | <1¢ | |
| 66° to 67° | <1¢ | |
| 64° to 65° | 3¢ | |
| 62° to 63° | 17¢ | |
| 60° to 61° | 45¢ | favorite |
| 58° to 59° | 29¢ | |
| 56° to 57° | 5¢ | |
| 54° to 55° | 1¢ | high so far |
| 52° to 53° | <1¢ | |
| 51° or below | <1¢ |
| Time | Reading |
|---|---|
| 4:51 AM | 54°F |
| 3:51 AM | 54°F |
| 2:51 AM | 52°F |
| 1:51 AM | 53°F |
| 12:51 AM | 55°F |
| Range | Price (30 min late) | Traded |
|---|---|---|
| 70° or above | <1¢ | 817 |
| 68°–69° | <1¢ | 422 |
| 66°–67° | <1¢ | 833 |
| 64°–65° | 3¢ | 290 |
| 62°–63° | 17¢ | 2,089 |
| 60°–61° | 45¢ | 4,227 |
| 58°–59° | 29¢ | 3,025 |
| 56°–57° | 5¢ | 2,761 |
| 54°–55°high so far | 1¢ | 213 |
| 52°–53° | <1¢ | 437 |
| 51° or below | <1¢ | 277 |
Almanac's °F is each report's tenths of a degree Celsius, rounded. Polymarket settles on NOAA's page for the station, which lists the same reports. Today's market on Polymarket.
Which range will Chicago settle on today? For fun: no money, no orders, nothing sent to Polymarket. It counts on the weekly leaderboard: a right call scores 100 minus its price when you called it.
Create a free account to make your call.
Polymarket's winning range held the high Kalshi settled on for 19 of 30 days; it came out warmer on 1 and cooler on 10.
| Day | Kalshi (KMDW): settled on | Polymarket (KORD): winning range | Polymarket wasCompared |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29 | 69° (68°–69°) | 68°–69° | Same high |
| Oct 28 | 76° (76°–77°) | 76°–77° | Same high |
| Oct 27 | 69° (68°–69°) | 68°–69° | Same high |
| Oct 26 | 64° (64°–65°) | 62°–63° | Polymarket cooler |
| Oct 25 | 74° (74°–75°) | 72°–73° | Polymarket cooler |
| Oct 24 | 70° (70°–71°) | 70°–71° | Same high |
| Oct 23 | 71° (71°–72°) | 70°–71° | Same high |
| Oct 22 | 72° (72°–73°) | 72°–73° | Same high |
| Oct 21 | 71° (70°–71°) | 70°–71° | Same high |
| Oct 20 | 69° (69°–70°) | 68°–69° | Same high |
| Oct 19 | 68° (67°–68°) | 66°–67° | Polymarket cooler |
| Oct 18 | 64° (63°–64°) | 62°–63° | Polymarket cooler |
| Oct 17 | 56° (55°–56°) | 56°–57° | Same high |
| Oct 16 | 58° (59° or below) | 56°–57° | Polymarket cooler |
| Oct 15 | 66° (65°–66°) | 66°–67° | Same high |
| Oct 14 | 67° (67°–68°) | 66°–67° | Same high |
| Oct 13 | 79° (81° or below) | 78°–79° | Same high |
| Oct 12 | 88° (88°–89°) | 86°–87° | Polymarket cooler |
| Oct 11 | 78° (77°–78°) | 78°–79° | Same high |
| Oct 10 | 81° (81°–82°) | 80°–81° | Same high |
| Oct 9 | 74° (73°–74°) | 70°–71° | Polymarket cooler |
| Oct 8 | 73° (72°–73°) | 72°–73° | Same high |
| Oct 7 | 79° (78°–79°) | 78°–79° | Same high |
| Oct 6 | 74° (74°–75°) | 74°–75° | Same high |
| Oct 5 | 68° (68°–69°) | 68°–69° | Same high |
| Oct 4 | 74° (74°–75°) | 72°–73° | Polymarket cooler |
| Oct 3 | 70° (70°–71°) | 68°–69° | Polymarket cooler |
| Oct 2 | 65° (65°–66°) | 66°–67° | Polymarket warmer |
| Oct 1 | 72° (71°–72°) | 70°–71° | Polymarket cooler |
| Sep 30 | 70° (69°–70°) | 70°–71° | Same high |
Source: Kalshi's settlements: Kalshi's public market data; Polymarket's results: each daily event
| Rule | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| What counts as the high | The day's official high for the station, as The Weather Company publishes it for Kalshi (weather.com/kalshi) for events from Aug 14, 2026. It has matched the NWS climate report's official high on 1,587 of 1,588 settled days, and that high counts a peak between hourly reports. | The highest reading in the "Temp" column of NOAA's time-series page for the station, using its hourly data, in whole degrees. A peak between two readings isn't in that column, so it can come out lower than the official high. |
| The day | Midnight to midnight local standard time, so 1 AM to 1 AM while clocks are on daylight time. | Every time listed on that day on NOAA's page, which shows the station's local clock time. |
| The ranges | Two-degree brackets, with an open bracket at each end. Where the brackets start moves from day to day (61°–62° one day, 62°–63° another). | Two-degree ranges that start on an even number (62°–63°), with an open range at each end. |
| When it settles | After the final report for the day is out, usually the next morning. | Once the first reading of the next day is on NOAA's page, or by 11:59 PM Eastern the next day. If NOAA has no data by then, the Weather Underground daily observations table is used. |
Source: Polymarket's market rules (read Thu, Oct 22); Kalshi contract terms; The Weather Company's Kalshi data
All 11 cities, Kalshi vs Polymarket
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