Weather market fees: Kalshi and Polymarket

Kalshi charges one fee on its daily high-temperature markets: the taker fee, 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the next cent, on every order that trades against one already on the book. There is no maker fee and no settlement fee on these series.

Kalshi Fee Schedule effective Feb 5, 2026; each series' fee fields checked Oct 21, 2026.

Kalshi fee
$0.18
1.8¢ a contract
You pay in all
$5.58
$5.40 + fee
Pays if it settles your way
$10.00
$1.00 a contract
Net if it settles your way
$4.42
Lost if it doesn't
-$5.58
Breaks even at
55.8%
the chance it must have, after the fee

Fee = 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the cent, per order. No maker or settlement fee on these series.

Worked examples

OrderBefore roundingFeeBreaks even
1 @ 54¢1.7388¢$0.0256%
100 @ 54¢173.88¢$1.7455.74%
1 @ 5¢0.3325¢$0.016%
10 @ 5¢3.325¢$0.045.40%

Source: Kalshi Fee Schedule, effective Feb 5, 2026; every daily-high series reports fee type "quadratic", multiplier 1 (Kalshi API)

The break-even price, worked through

One contract at 54¢: 0.07 × 0.54 × 0.46 = 1.7388¢, rounded up to 2¢. It costs 56¢ and pays 100¢ if it settles your way, so it breaks even at a 56% chance, not 54%. In one order of 100 the fee is 173.88¢, rounded up to $1.74: 1.74¢ a contract, breaking even at 55.74%.

The rounding trap

  • Small orders pay more. The cent is rounded up once per order, so 100 contracts at 54¢ bought as 100 single-contract orders pay $2.00 in fees; bought in one order, $1.74.
  • Cheap contracts pay the most for their size. One contract at 5¢ owes 0.3325¢, rounded up to 1¢: 20% of the price, and a 6% break-even. In one order of 100 the fee is 34¢, 0.34¢ each.
  • Near $1 the fee eats the payout. One contract at 95¢ also pays 1¢, a fifth of the 5¢ it can make; it breaks even at 96%.
Price1 contract10 in one order100 in one order
5¢1.00¢ each · 6%0.40¢ each · 5.40%0.34¢ each · 5.34%
20¢2.00¢ each · 22%1.20¢ each · 21.20%1.12¢ each · 21.12%
35¢2.00¢ each · 37%1.60¢ each · 36.60%1.60¢ each · 36.60%
50¢2.00¢ each · 52%1.80¢ each · 51.80%1.75¢ each · 51.75%
54¢2.00¢ each · 56%1.80¢ each · 55.80%1.74¢ each · 55.74%
65¢2.00¢ each · 67%1.60¢ each · 66.60%1.60¢ each · 66.60%
80¢2.00¢ each · 82%1.20¢ each · 81.20%1.12¢ each · 81.12%
95¢1.00¢ each · 96%0.40¢ each · 95.40%0.34¢ each · 95.34%

The fee per contract and the break-even chance, by price and order size, from the fee schedule's formula.

Polymarket's fee, beside Kalshi's

Polymarket charges its weather markets' takers 0.05 × shares × price × (1 − price), in USDC to $0.00001, with no rounding up to the cent and nothing for makers. The calculator above works out either exchange. Here are both fees on 100 at each price:

PriceKalshi, 100 contractsPolymarket, 100 shares
10¢$0.63$0.45
30¢$1.47$1.05
50¢$1.75$1.25
70¢$1.47$1.05
90¢$0.63$0.45

Source: Polymarket documentation: fees; Kalshi Fee Schedule (effective Feb 5, 2026)

How the rounding reaches your account

Kalshi's API documentation adds how the rounding is carried out: fees are worked out per fill to $0.000001, and a rounding charge keeps each account's balance to $0.0001 for direct members or to $0.01 for accounts cleared through a futures commission merchant, carried across all the fills of one order. On an account kept to $0.0001 the round-up may be smaller than the whole cent shown here. Almanac can't see accounts: a filled order's fee on your statement is the final word.

Source: Kalshi API documentation: fee rounding

Questions about the fee

How is Kalshi's fee calculated on the daily high-temperature markets?

Taker fee = 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the next cent, per order. These series charge no maker fee and no settlement fee.

What's the break-even probability on a contract bought at 54¢?

About 56% for one contract. The fee is 0.07 × 0.54 × 0.46 = $0.0174, rounded up to $0.02, so the contract costs $0.56 and pays $1 if it settles your way: 56%. Bought 100 at a time, the fee is $1.74 and the break-even is 55.74%.

Why do cheap contracts cost so much in fees?

Because each order's fee rounds up to a whole cent: one contract at 5¢ pays $0.01, 20% of its price, so it needs a 6% chance to break even, not 5%. One order of 100 pays $0.34, 0.34¢ a contract.

Is it cheaper to buy in one order than in several?

Yes, under the fee schedule's formula. 100 contracts at 54¢ in one order pay $1.74 in fees; the same 100 as single-contract orders pay $2.00, $0.26 more.

Is there a fee for resting orders or for settlement?

Not on these markets. Every daily-high series reports Kalshi's "quadratic" fee type with a multiplier of 1, none is listed for maker fees, and there is no settlement fee.

How is Polymarket's fee calculated on its temperature markets?

Taker fee = 0.05 × shares × price × (1 − price), charged in USDC and rounded to $0.00001, only to the side that takes a resting order; makers pay nothing. 100 shares at 30¢ pay $1.05; it is largest at 50¢, $1.25 per 100 shares.

Which exchange charges less?

On the same order, Polymarket's weather fee works out lower: its rate is 5% against Kalshi's 7%, and it isn't rounded up to a whole cent. 100 at 54¢: $1.74 at Kalshi, $1.24 at Polymarket. Neither charges the side whose order was resting.

Source: Kalshi Fee Schedule (effective Feb 5, 2026); One series' fee fields, Kalshi's public API (New York City)

Compare the plans · Break-even, defined

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